Elevated wildfire risk with mostly dry, mild start to the week

Preexisting dry air to keep rain isolated Tuesday -- mild and mostly sunny midweek stretch before rain moves in Thursday.
Preexisting dry air to keep rain isolated Tuesday -- mild and mostly sunny midweek stretch before rain moves in Thursday.
Published: May. 15, 2023 at 6:21 PM EDT
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NWS Alerts: https://www.uppermichiganssource.com/weather/alerts/

*Very High Fire Danger rating to start the week in Upper Michigan from a combination of dry and mild air plus gusty winds. Fires can start easily from all causes and spread/intensify quickly after ignition. DNR Daily Fire Danger Rating can be found HERE.

High pressure pattern over Upper Michigan falls to a weather system dipping down to the region from the Canadian Shield. The mostly dry system brings isolated light rain chances but will impact the U.P. with gusty winds plus a rush of cool air to offset the usual daytime heating trend.

Rain chances pick up later Thursday as a fast-moving clipper system arrives from Manitoba. Scattered rain and thunderstorms expected through the end of Friday -- Thursday-Friday rain amounts can total over an inch for some areas, including the Central U.P.

A secondary system spreads rain showers over the region Saturday before drier but cool weather prevails through next week.

Tonight: Mostly clear with an isolated light morning rain shower; breezy with westerly winds gusting over 20 mph (over 30 mph near the Lake Superior shore)

>Lows: 40s near Lake Superior ... 50s Elsewhere in the U.P.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with an isolated light rain shower early, then becoming mostly sunny towards afternoon; breezy with northerly winds gusting over 20 mph

>Highs: 40s near Lake Superior ... 60s Away from Lake Superior

Wednesday: Patchy morning frost otherwise mostly sunny, mild and dry

>Highs: 60s

Thursday: Increasing clouds with scattered rain, thunderstorms spreading west to east overnight; breezy

>Highs: 70

Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain, isolated wintry mix west, thunderstorms before diminishing late; breezy

>Highs: 50s

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain then diminishing late; breezy

>Highs: 50s/60

Sunday: Mostly sunny and blustery

>Highs: 50s

Monday: Mostly sunny and cool

>Highs: 50s/60