We covered the “Green Christmas” of 1994 on Christmas Eve.  The high of 52 at the NWS was the warmest Christmas Eve on record.  The warmth was unseasonable and unrelenting.  Iron Mountain had record highs on the 22^nd and then from the 24^th through 27^th.  Ironwood, where records go back over 100 years, had highs of 53 on Christmas, 52 on the 26^th and a third consecutive record high of 45 on December 27, 1994. 

It turned out to be a warm winter.  December came in 10.2 degrees above average with no below zero lows.  January came in 5.5 degrees above normal.  In February there was a rather dramatic turnaround.  A deep upper-air trough developed over the eastern U.S. and cold air poured into Upper Michigan (Image 1 above).  Big lake-effect snows ensued over the north.  A record (smashed in February 2002) 63.6 inches of snow fell at the NWS site near Negaunee.  Even with the cold and snow, the month still ended a degree above the long-term average. 

While temperatures fell below zero near the Wisconsin line early this morning, similar to 1994, there have been no “official” below zero lows at the National Weather Service yet this winter.  Through Christmas, the month is running six degrees above average.  There has been no sustained cold.  One of the reasons is the water temperatures in the North Pacific Ocean.  Last year, it was cold in the eastern Pacific, with a warm pool northwest of Hawaii.  That led to a persistent trough over the eastern Pacific and West Coast.  This year, while the tropical Pacific is warmer, the North Pacific has a similar temperature profile (Images 2 and 3).  That means that it will be difficult for a big ridge to develop and hold along the West Coast.  We get our coldest weather when a ridge pops up along the West Coast up into Alaska.  With the Ocean temperatures similar to last year, the arctic air may continue to be bottled up to the north.  This is good news if you don’t like high heating bills.