Over the last few days we have transitioned into a warm, quiet pattern. Right now we are in the ridge position with a big, cold trough along the West Coast (Image 1 above). All medium-range models forecast the trough to come out in pieces and redevelop into the central portion of the U.S. by the weekend (Image 2). If this scenario unfolds, we will turn colder. There is cold air waiting in the wings over western Canada (Image 3). So there is a ready supply available.
As far as precipitation, there will be a chance of showers developing late tonight or more likely Tuesday as a frontal boundary to the south heads northward as a warm front. The front will likely pass through for at least a time. This would give us our warmest period Wednesday into Thursday. Lows at night may not get below 50 degrees in many sections of the U.P. and highs would at least touch 60 and probably rise well into the 60s, especially on Thursday. A low will likely develop along the front to our west and lift to our northwest giving us a chance of more rain. Then colder air will start filtering in on Thursday and become well established by the beginning of the weekend with below average temperatures taking hold. It appears that October, like September will wind up at least a little below the long-term average.
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