The storm reports from Saturday's tornado outbreak are numerous to say the least--one-hundred-twenty-one reported tornadoes with multiple fatalities in Oklahoma. The actual number of tornadoes will be determined throughout the day by the National Weather Service storm surveyors. The same low pressure system that caused all of the severe weather will be granting Upper Michigan with more than a few rumbles of thunder Sunday.
The warm front and south wind ahead of the low pressure center will keep high temperatures mild Sunday. Most of the U.P. will see highs in the 50s, and the southern counties may reach 60. Rain will be seen across much of the U.P. throughout the day, but thunderstorms will be most likely in the southern U.P. along the warm front in the afternoon and evening. Some storms could be intense at times causing hail and strong winds.
Even further south in Wisconsin, storms will likely be severe and possibly causing tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has declared a moderate risk for severe weather in Wisconsin.
Lows Sunday night will plummet into the 30s and possibly 20s as we experience a cold front passing from the northwest. This surge of colder air will turn rain into snow and ice late Sunday night. Accumulations may exceed an inch or two, mainly on the west end and along Lake Superior.
Monday's forecast is complicated. As the cold front passes across the U.P. during the day, temperatures will not rise much despite radiational heating. Cloud cover will be strong and precipitation will continue. Most temperatures will reach into the upper 30s and perhaps low 40s for highs (warmest east ahead of the front). Strong winds will add considerable wind chill. Rain is likely, but it could easily be snow and ice along and behind the front. Because surface temperatures will be above freezing, new accumulations will be minimal.
Monday night will be cold with lows in the 20s. Light snow may continue, but will taper off late. Skies will also clear away steadily starting in the west as high pressure takes over for Tuesday. Winds will also decrease. The rest of the week will see a "zonal" flow. That means that temperatures will remain fairly consistent for a while. Through next weekend, highs will mainly be in the 40s and lows in the 20s. Wednesday will likely see more rain.
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It's fitting that we see some stormy conditions Sunday as it is the start of Severe Weather Awareness Week. Tornadoes and supercells aren't as common in the U.P., but they do happen. It's always good to be prepared.
For more weather info and updates on potential watches and warnings, join me on Facebook. I recently got into the whole cover photo thing with Timeline. I'll try and change it every week or so to another weather-related photo. I have many storm chase photos from this past summer that I would love to share with my viewers. I may even put up some user-submitted photos if you send them!
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