The upper air forecast for Saturday, November 7 features a westerly flow of mild, Pacific air over most of the United States including the Upper Peninsula.
November 2: The slide into Winter
By Karl Bohnak
Monday, November 02, 2009 at 3:39 p.m.
November truly begins the slide into winter for the Upper Peninsula. No other month has such a precipitous fall in average temperature. By the end of the month, most locations except possibly the far south have a snow cover that lasts through the winter.
The average high on November 1 at the National Weather Service (NWS) near Negaunee is 45, while the average low is 30. By the 30th, the averages plunge to 31 and 17. Shirtsleeve weather is possible early in the month. The high at the NWS topped out at 73 as late as November 9, 1999. The same year Ironwood hit 71 on the 10th, while on November 14 in 1999 and 1953 Iron Mountain topped out at 70. By the latter portion of the month, record lows are below zero. In fact starting on November 7th, all of Ironwood’s record lows are below zero, with an all-time November low of 18 below set on November 30, 1976.
When I first came to the Upper Peninsula in 1988, the November snowfall average at the NWS was around 18 inches. Recent snowy months have increased the average to 22.6 inches. Over 40 inches fell in November 2005 (40.3), 1989 (41.7), 1988 (42.8), 2008 (43.6) and 1991 (48.9). Snow cover usually stays for the winter beginning around the end of the third week in November in the snow belts of the north, while southern areas and towns right along the Lake Superior shoreline usually have a permanent winter cover by early December.
This month looks to start out mild. There will be a brief intrusion of chilly air this week, but by the end of the work week a strong westerly flow aloft is forecast to develop (Image above). This will drive low pressure east to west through Canada and keep winter bottled up in northern Canada until possibly the middle of the month.
